Explore the New Energy Development Concept Under the New Development Pattern

  In the process of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and comprehensively promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with Chinese-style modernization, the macro-political and economic situation and industrial transformation and development situation are facing a century of great changes accelerating. These changes are not only expanding the boundaries of energy security incrementally, but also profoundly and violently reshaping the pattern of energy security. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly put forward the "new security pattern to ensure the new development pattern", which is a major strategic consideration of the central government's overall development and security, and the realization of high-quality development and high-level security dynamic balance, and also provides guidance for the construction of a new energy outlook on development.

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China's energy development is facing a new situation under the new development pattern

  First, the external development situation has become more complex amid profound changes unseen in a century, and factors of uncertainty and instability have increased significantly. China-us trade frictions and the impact of the epidemic have impacted the security and stability of global energy trade and industrial chain and supply chain, and the division of labor in the global industrial chain is facing a comprehensive reshaping. Due to the scarcity and financial attributes of energy, the concentrated geographical distribution of oil and gas resources and the reverse distribution of supply and demand, the reshaping process further highlights the political attributes and strategic tool attributes of energy. The trend of multi-polarization of energy supply and demand is prominent. Global crises such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the conflict between Palestine and Israel have occurred frequently, and the geopolitical confrontation between major powers has become increasingly heated. The world is in a period of turbulence and change. The United States and its Allies have escalated their oppression of China, and anti-globalization and trade protectionism have hindered China's external circulation. China's development has entered a period of coexistence of strategic opportunities, risks and challenges, and increasing uncertainties and unpredictable factors, and we must be prepared to withstand the major test of high winds and rapid waves and even rough seas.

  Second, the great rejuvenation strategy of the Chinese nation continues to advance, and the relationship between China's economy, energy and environment is adjusted synchronously, and the three are increasingly coupled. Driven by multiple goals such as building a new development pattern, peaking carbon neutrality, and a new energy system, the relationship between China's economy, energy and environment has become more closely coupled, and the interaction mechanism has undergone profound changes. In the economic field, under the rigid growth of energy consumption, China's economic and social green low-carbon transformation is facing huge challenges, under the secondary industry's proportion, China's economy is facing the pressure of multi-balance and balance such as emission reduction and consumption reduction and stable manufacturing proportion, economic growth momentum faces the "transition", and energy needs to play a greater role in the transformation of old and new momentum. In the field of energy, China's energy structure is dominated by coal, and the overall emission reduction and safety pressure is huge. In the face of the time-backed requirements to achieve the "dual carbon" goal, the pace, intensity and coordination between industries and regions will all have an impact on the overall transition safety margin, transformation cost, and the stable structure of local energy and power systems. In the field of environment, the work of "double carbon" has been integrated into the overall layout of ecological civilization construction and economic and social development, and China's carbon emission space has been rapidly tightened. Under 2 degrees Celsius or 1.5 degrees Celsius, China's carbon budget from 2011 to 2050 is about 330 billion to 360 billion tons or 190 billion to 230 billion tons, respectively, which means that the environmental space for economic development will shrink significantly. Overall, China's economy has great resilience and potential for development, long-term fundamentals have not changed, but the current economic operation is facing insufficient domestic demand, more risks in key areas and other problems, need to consider the important role of energy in the internal cycle at a strategic height.

  Third, the energy industry has entered a new stage of development, shouldering the mission of a new era, and its security risks are complicated, dynamic and systematic. In the new situation of synchronous reshaping of economic, energy and environmental relations, energy risks and security issues have entered a new stage in which old and new factors are intertwined, hidden and sudden increases, and dynamic changes at any time and space, and the risk chain shows the characteristics of cross-system transmission. First of all, China's energy resource endowment of rich coal, poor oil and little gas determines that our country has always been a high degree of oil and gas acquisition, and faces inherent energy security risks such as energy transportation channel risk and international import risk for a long time. Secondly, with the promotion of energy transformation, vigorously developing new energy can reduce the external purchasing degree of oil and gas, but it also leads to qualitative changes in the technical characteristics of a high proportion of new energy power system, and the operation risk is increased. The reliable supply of electricity is aggravated by meteorological factors, and the risk of uncertainty increases significantly. The new material-intensive power system has a double dependence on mineral resources and faces the risk of restricting key mineral resources. Finally, the continued deepening of economic development and energy transformation in the future may also face other risks of multi-system coupling. For example, large-scale allocation of flexibly regulated resources may lead to sustainable development challenges that cannot be accommodated by additional costs; The uncertainty risk of breakthroughs in key technologies of energy transformation; At present, the overheating of the new energy and energy storage market may lead to the security risk of the industrial chain. The shortage of coal power project may lead to the fault of talent team and employment risk; Systemic risks caused by cascade and amplification of various kinds of risks will bring huge risks and challenges to economic and social development.

  In order to solve such complex, dynamic and systematic security risks, it is necessary to reshape the understanding of energy development and security, and form a new outlook on energy development that is compatible with the current development stage.

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Overall development and security of new energy development concept

  The so-called new energy development concept means that under the guidance of the new development pattern and the new strategy of energy security, the system engineering method, the concept of overall development and security, and the global, systematic, overall, dynamic and open perspective to analyze the development of energy security.

(1) Guiding ideology of balanced development and security

  According to Marxist historical materialism, development is realized in the contradictory movement of productive forces and production relations, economic base and superstructure; Security means that the system composed of relevant elements is relatively in a state without danger and from internal and external threats, and has the ability to ensure a continuous security state. It is true that development and security are opposed, but in the long run, development and security will eventually converge. On the one hand, development promotes security. First, the development can provide more abundant and effective material, technical, human resources and other safeguards for security; The second is the development of the system is constantly updating its own elements, structure, function, in this process, the system's ability to adapt to various external elements, the stability of the internal structure (anti-risk ability) is also constantly enhanced. On the other hand, security also promotes development. Security is a necessary prerequisite for development as it provides a stable order and environment as well as adequate material basis for development. Accurately grasping the dynamic changes in the relationship between development and security is the key to promoting high-quality energy development and ensuring national energy security in China under the complicated situation.

  Different countries and different stages of energy development focus on different, and in different stages of energy security to resist the main risks are also different, energy development and energy security demand structure is hierarchical. However, the different levels of energy development and energy security demand do not climb step by step, and the same historical stage may be at multiple levels. Moreover, the deterioration of the external development environment does not necessarily lead to the reduction of the level of energy security needs.

  As a typical energy importing country, in the early days of the founding of New China, the development demand mainly focused on energy accessibility, and the security demand emphasized availability. In the early stage of reform and opening up, development needs pay more attention to the physical attributes of energy security and energy economy, and security needs pay more attention to stability and diversity. Entering the new development stage, the development demand is more concerned about the industrial attributes of the energy economy and energy friendliness and fairness, the increasing degree of anti-globalization and external forces have not reduced the demand for energy security in China to the availability stage, but have prompted China to pay more attention to resilience and initiative, stimulating the pursuit of energy independence.

Figure 1. Hierarchy of energy development needs

Figure 2 Energy security demand hierarchy

(2) Constructing new energy development concept with system engineering methodology

  To build a new energy development concept based on system engineering methodology is to take the mapping and interaction between the conceptual world and the real world as a link, to carry out top-level design with mission, task, function and characteristics as the main line, and to form a new energy development concept with Chinese characteristics with the evolution of elements and structures as the core. Specifically, starting from the mission of Chinese-style modernization, the central task of building a new development pattern, building a new energy system, and achieving carbon peak carbon neutrality is proposed. Energy has five important functional positioning: promoting development, ensuring supply, strengthening innovation, adjusting structure, and expanding opening-up. According to the five characteristics of Chinese-style modernization, the core of the new energy development concept is proposed. Namely, "intensive saving, independent and controllable, cost controllable, inclusive sharing, market leading, government governance, ecological priority, green development, open cooperation, and strive for initiative", it is clear that the new energy development concept should cover the five core elements of energy consumption concept, supply concept, science and technology concept, governance concept and cooperation concept, and put forward that under the dynamic evolution of the new energy development concept structure, A series of understanding on promoting high-quality energy development and ensuring national energy security.

FIG. 3 Constructing new energy development concept with system engineering methodology

  Energy consumption concept: resolutely control total energy consumption, effectively implement the policy of giving priority to energy conservation, integrate energy conservation throughout the whole process of economic and social development and all fields, firmly adjust the industrial structure, attach great importance to urbanization and energy conservation, establish a thrifty consumption concept, and accelerate the formation of an energy saving society. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the single risk of energy use caused by the gradual increase in the level of electrification in the process of energy consumption structure adjustment.

  Energy supply concept: Based on domestic diversified supply to ensure security, strengthen the clean and efficient use of coal, increase oil and gas resources exploration and development and increase storage and production, vigorously develop non-fossil energy, and form a multi-wheel driven energy supply system of coal, oil, gas, nuclear and renewable energy. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the cost increase risk, meteorological risk, power system operation risk and other factors that may be caused by the gradual increase of the proportion of new energy.

  Energy technology concept: Based on China's national conditions, closely follow the new trend of international energy technology revolution, to green and low-carbon direction, classification to promote technological innovation, industrial innovation, business model innovation, and closely combined with other fields of high-tech, energy technology and related industries to foster a new growth point to drive China's industrial upgrading. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the risk of uncertain breakthroughs in key technologies.

  Energy governance concept: unswervingly promote reform, restore the attributes of energy commodities, build an effective competitive market structure and market system, form a mechanism that mainly determines energy prices by the market, change the way the government regulates energy, and establish a sound energy rule of law system. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the governance risks that may be caused by unreasonable mechanism design.

  Energy cooperation concept: Strengthen international cooperation in all aspects of the energy production and consumption revolution and make effective use of international resources on the premise of a domestic basis. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the geopolitical, energy prices and other international import risks under the opening of the market.

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Based on the concept of development of new energy, this paper puts forward a series of understanding on promoting high-quality development of energy and ensuring national energy security

  The core value of the new energy development concept of overall development and security is to analyze the problem of energy security development, and put forward a series of understandings to promote the high-quality development of energy and ensure national energy security.

  Understanding 1: The energy system has undergone structural changes, and the security risks show the characteristics of hierarchy, correlation and emergence. Based on the systematic thinking, the security risks brought by the energy transformation under the "dual carbon" goal and the new development pattern can be divided into three levels: The first is the most classic and the most core supply and demand security; the second is resource security, channel security, science and technology security, ecological security and other interrelated and mutual transformation; the third is a holistic understanding of all kinds of risks in the outlook on new energy development, which will emerge beyond the original risks of energy, economy, environment and other cross-system coupling and cascading systemic and structural risks.

The eight ideas of understanding and managing energy security risks under the new energy development view are presented

  Understanding 2: The connotation and extension of China's energy security continue to expand, to the iterative evolution of systematic security. As the internal and external factors affecting energy security continue to accelerate the evolution, the industries and disciplines involved continue to increase, and the research angles are increasingly diversified, the connotation and denotation of energy security expand correspondingly and change dynamically. For example, the IEA proposed to focus on the stability and reliability of energy supply, no disruption, reasonable prices, and expand to focus on resource security, meteorological security, scientific and technological security, ecological security, economic security, network security, cooperation security and other energy extension security. With the energy entering the "insecure" era, the security connotation is further evolving to the system.

  Understanding 3: The focus of energy security has expanded from oil and gas resource security to power security, showing a pattern of equal emphasis on oil and gas and power. Under the synchronous evolution of the new development pattern, the new energy system and the "dual carbon" goal, China's energy development has entered a new stage of development with power as the center. The focus of energy security is expanding to the power system, and the energy security problem dominated by oil and gas will evolve into a new stage of attaching equal importance to the security of oil and gas resources and the safety of the operation and industrial chain of the power system. The traditional oil resource security challenge is transferred to the system security, science and technology security, network security and other challenges of the power system: the high proportion of new energy access will promote the formation of a "double-high" power system, and the difficulty of supply and demand balance of the power system and the difficulty of safe and stable operation guarantee will increase; How to ensure the safe interaction of data and information under the high degree of informatization is also becoming more and more important.

  Understanding four: At present and in the future, the energy security confrontation will become increasingly fierce, expanding the target of the attack, sharpening the main body of the confrontation, and diversifying the means of attack. The energy security confrontation has gradually extended from affecting the normal energy supply of target countries through the fluctuations of oil and gas commodity prices to the confrontation between geopolitical and military blocs demarcated by ideology. In the economic sphere, by imposing financial and economic sanctions against the energy supply chain of the targeted country; In the military sphere, direct destruction of the cross-border energy infrastructure of the target country through military operations. In general, the scope, intensity and intensity of energy security confrontation are increasing.

  Understanding five: Under the new energy development concept, the thinking of understanding and managing energy security risks has undergone profound changes. From the rigid supply assurance thinking at the professional level of the industry, it has developed to the systematic thinking of overall national security, the bottom line thinking of war scenarios, the self-reliance thinking of energy science and technology, the flexible supply assurance thinking of meteorological security risks, the distributed and centralized power supply assurance thinking, the strategic thinking of energy governance, the resilience thinking of energy system, and the active thinking of energy independence．

  Article source: China Energy storage network